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Chris Ryder v Lewis Anderson (Mon 04 Nov 2019)

Match won by Chris Ryder. Result: 11-4,5-11,12-10,11-4.

Starting level for Chris Ryder: 19,688, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 17,365, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Chris Ryder to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Lewis Anderson.

Chris Ryder won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 34% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Ryder played 28% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Ryder actually played at a level of 20,930 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 16,335. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.3% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Ryder changes to +5.9% and Lewis Anderson changes to -4.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Ryder becomes +1.9% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -1.7%.

Given Chris Ryder's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Ryder is +1% and for Lewis Anderson is -0.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Ryder: 78%, Lewis Anderson: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Ryder: 73%, Lewis Anderson: 83%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Ryder: 19,941, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 17,247, level confidence: 83%.