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Oliver Rawlins v Chris Hall (Mon 04 Nov 2019)

Match won by Chris Hall. Result: 2-11,6-11,9-11.

Starting level for Oliver Rawlins: 14,077, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Chris Hall: 21,125, level confidence: 68%.
Chris Hall to win as he is currently playing 50% better than Oliver Rawlins.

Chris Hall won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hall played 94% better than Oliver Rawlins in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hall actually played at a level of 24,026 and Oliver Rawlins at a level of 12,377. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11.1% and 11.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hall changes to +8.4% and Oliver Rawlins changes to -11.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hall becomes +2.4% and for Oliver Rawlins becomes -3.2%.

Given Chris Hall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 41% has been applied to his level change.

Given Oliver Rawlins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 27% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Hall is +1.3% and for Oliver Rawlins is -1.9%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hall: 83%, Oliver Rawlins: 72%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hall: 73%, Oliver Rawlins: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Oliver Rawlins: 13,854, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Chris Hall: 21,448, level confidence: 73%.