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Nick Wall v Lewis Anderson (Tue 29 Oct 2019)

Match won by Nick Wall. Result: 11-8,9-11,11-7,9-11,11-5.

Starting level for Nick Wall: 23,337, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,085, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Nick Wall to win as he is currently playing 45% better than Lewis Anderson.

Nick Wall won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Wall played 13% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

As Nick Wall has played below his allowed range at 19,620, his level reduction is 8.1% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Wall would normally have been playing at level 22,365 (based on typical behaviour), Lewis Anderson played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.7% and 9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Wall changes to -6.7% and Lewis Anderson changes to +7.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Wall becomes -2% and for Lewis Anderson becomes +2.2%.

Given Nick Wall's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 45% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Nick Wall is -1% and for Lewis Anderson is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Wall: 80%, Lewis Anderson: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Wall: 70%, Lewis Anderson: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Wall: 23,155, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,331, level confidence: 79%.