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Joshua Taylor v Andy Whipp (Tue 05 Nov 2019)

Match won by Andy Whipp. Result: 11-7,7-11,9-11,4-11.

Starting level for Joshua Taylor: 14,864, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Whipp: 19,572, level confidence: 66%.
Andy Whipp to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Joshua Taylor.

Andy Whipp won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Andy Whipp played 26% better than Joshua Taylor in this match.

In this case, Andy Whipp played at level 18,935 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Andy Whipp would normally have been playing at level 19,094 (based on typical behaviour), Joshua Taylor played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Andy Whipp changes to 0% and Joshua Taylor changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Andy Whipp becomes 0% and for Joshua Taylor becomes 0%.

Given Joshua Taylor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Andy Whipp is 0% and for Joshua Taylor is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Andy Whipp: 81%, Joshua Taylor: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Andy Whipp: 80%, Joshua Taylor: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joshua Taylor: 14,922, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Andy Whipp: 19,617, level confidence: 80%.