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Alan Clyne v Richie Fallows (Tue 05 Nov 2019)

Match won by Alan Clyne. Result: 11-9,0-11,11-5.

Starting level for Alan Clyne: 41,613, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 30,331, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Alan Clyne to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Richie Fallows.

Alan Clyne won 67% of the games and 47% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alan Clyne played 4% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

As Alan Clyne has played below his allowed range at 34,953, his level reduction is 10.8% before damping. On the assumption that Alan Clyne would normally have been playing at level 40,306 (based on typical behaviour), Richie Fallows played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 13%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.2% and 11% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 6.8% and 8.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alan Clyne changes to -6.8% and Richie Fallows changes to +7.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alan Clyne becomes -1.9% and for Richie Fallows becomes +2%.

Given Alan Clyne's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change.

Given Richie Fallows's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 56% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Premier Alba Storm v Nottingham League' so the adjustment for Alan Clyne is -0.8% and for Richie Fallows is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alan Clyne: 84%, Richie Fallows: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alan Clyne: 73%, Richie Fallows: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alan Clyne: 41,383, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 30,705, level confidence: 77%.