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Perry Malik v Alisdair Shapcott (Wed 06 Nov 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-1,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,683, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alisdair Shapcott: 10,258, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Alisdair Shapcott.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 200% better than Alisdair Shapcott in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 21,257 and Alisdair Shapcott at a level of 7,086. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 36% and 36% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +36% and Alisdair Shapcott changes to -34%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +8.1% and for Alisdair Shapcott becomes -8.3%.

Given Perry Malik's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alisdair Shapcott's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Perry Malik is +4.7% and for Alisdair Shapcott is -5.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 85%, Alisdair Shapcott: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 59%, Alisdair Shapcott: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 15,373, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Alisdair Shapcott: 9,766, level confidence: 60%.