Ondrej Uherka v Anthony Rogal (Tue 05 Nov 2019)
Match won by Ondrej Uherka. Result: 8-11,11-4,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Ondrej Uherka:
15,794, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
15,820, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing
0% better than Ondrej Uherka.
Ondrej Uherka won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 58% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ondrej Uherka played
36% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ondrej Uherka actually played at a level of
18,420 and Anthony Rogal at a level of
13,565. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka changes to +17% and Anthony Rogal changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka becomes +4.3% and for Anthony Rogal becomes -4.3%.
Given Ondrej Uherka's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.
Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Ondrej Uherka is +2.4% and for Anthony Rogal is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ondrej Uherka: 89%, Anthony Rogal: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ondrej Uherka: 77%, Anthony Rogal: 77%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ondrej Uherka:
16,219, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
15,542, level confidence: 77%.