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Anthony Rogal v Jack Webster (Wed 06 Nov 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-9,11-6,10-12,11-6.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 15,559, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jack Webster: 11,571, level confidence: 69%.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Jack Webster.

Anthony Rogal won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 27% better than Jack Webster in this match.

In this case, Anthony Rogal played at level 14,894 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Anthony Rogal would normally have been playing at level 15,124 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Webster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to 0% and Jack Webster changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes 0% and for Jack Webster becomes +0.6%.

Given Jack Webster's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is 0% and for Jack Webster is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 87%, Jack Webster: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 85%, Jack Webster: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 15,557, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Jack Webster: 11,615, level confidence: 81%.