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Neil Cordell v David Smith (Wed 06 Nov 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 11-8,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Neil Cordell: 18,458, level confidence: 49%.
Starting level for David Smith: 7,978, level confidence: 69%.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 131% better than David Smith.

Neil Cordell won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 83% better than David Smith in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Neil Cordell was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 12,345 and 18,458 without affecting his level.

In this case, Neil Cordell played at level 15,026 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Neil Cordell would normally have been playing at level 15,436 (based on typical behaviour), David Smith played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to 0% and David Smith changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes 0% and for David Smith becomes +0.7%.

Given David Smith's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 11% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is 0% and for David Smith is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 70%, David Smith: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 62%, David Smith: 74%.

Final level for Neil Cordell: 18,458, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for David Smith: 8,014, level confidence: 74%.