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Joe Brooke v Scott Handley (Tue 05 Nov 2019)

Match won by Joe Brooke. Result: 11-3,11-3,8-11,4-11,11-7.

Starting level for Joe Brooke: 16,206, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Scott Handley: 13,346, level confidence: 57%.
Joe Brooke to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Scott Handley.

Joe Brooke won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Brooke played 15% better than Scott Handley in this match.

As Joe Brooke has played below his allowed range at 15,534, his level reduction is 1.5% before damping. On the assumption that Joe Brooke would normally have been playing at level 16,012 (based on typical behaviour), Scott Handley played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Brooke changes to -1.1% and Scott Handley changes to +2.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Brooke becomes -0.5% and for Scott Handley becomes +1%.

Given Joe Brooke's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Given Scott Handley's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 26% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Oxfordshire Mens Winter League 2019' so the adjustment for Joe Brooke is 0% and for Scott Handley is +0.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Brooke: 83%, Scott Handley: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Brooke: 81%, Scott Handley: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joe Brooke: 16,134, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Scott Handley: 13,404, level confidence: 73%.