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Matt Gregory v Lewis Anderson (Fri 01 Nov 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 2-11,9-11,8-11.

Starting level for Matt Gregory: 5,253, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,465, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 213% better than Matt Gregory.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 74% better than Matt Gregory in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewis Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 26%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,048 and 16,465 without affecting his level.

In this case, Lewis Anderson played at level 10,553 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 12,205 (based on typical behaviour), Matt Gregory played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 8.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to 0% and Matt Gregory changes to +8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes 0% and for Matt Gregory becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 89%, Matt Gregory: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 66%, Matt Gregory: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Matt Gregory: 5,409, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,440, level confidence: 66%.