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Abdul Muqaddam Khan v Lewis Anderson (Fri 01 Nov 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 7-11,4-11,11-6,8-11.

Starting level for Abdul Muqaddam Khan: 5,720, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 16,330, level confidence: 66%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 185% better than Abdul Muqaddam Khan.

Lewis Anderson won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 30% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 27% better than Abdul Muqaddam Khan in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewis Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 23%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 9,735 and 16,330 without affecting his level.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 8,398, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 12,609 (based on typical behaviour), Abdul Muqaddam Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 32%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.1% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to -8.9% and Abdul Muqaddam Khan changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -2.7% and for Abdul Muqaddam Khan becomes +5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 81%, Abdul Muqaddam Khan: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 54%, Abdul Muqaddam Khan: 53%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdul Muqaddam Khan: 6,035, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 15,884, level confidence: 54%.