Ben Smith v Lewis Anderson (Sat 02 Nov 2019)
Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 13-15,11-7,11-9,1-11,1-11.
Starting level for
Ben Smith:
18,856, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Lewis Anderson:
15,884, level confidence: 54%.
Ben Smith to win as he is currently playing
19% better than Lewis Anderson.
Lewis Anderson won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played
18% better than Ben Smith in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Anderson actually played at a level of
18,824 and Ben Smith at a level of
15,911. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to +17% and Ben Smith changes to -14%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes +4.3% and for Ben Smith becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 73%, Ben Smith: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 62%, Ben Smith: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ben Smith:
18,182, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson:
16,543, level confidence: 62%.