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Alfie Lawes v Perry Malik (Sat 02 Nov 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 5-11,4-11,8-11.

Starting level for Alfie Lawes: 8,602, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,978, level confidence: 64%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 74% better than Alfie Lawes.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 94% better than Alfie Lawes in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 15,815 and Alfie Lawes at a level of 8,147. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.2% and 4.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +4.2% and Alfie Lawes changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +1.6% and for Alfie Lawes becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 80%, Alfie Lawes: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 76%, Alfie Lawes: 86%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Alfie Lawes: 8,451, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 15,201, level confidence: 76%.