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Perry Malik v Lewis Poole (Sat 02 Nov 2019)

Match won by Lewis Poole. Result: 10-12,4-11,11-9,6-11.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,015, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Poole: 12,358, level confidence: 56%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 22% better than Lewis Poole.

Lewis Poole won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 39% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Poole played 30% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lewis Poole actually played at a level of 15,503 and Perry Malik at a level of 11,969. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Poole changes to +23% and Perry Malik changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Poole becomes +5.8% and for Perry Malik becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Poole: 75%, Perry Malik: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Poole: 60%, Perry Malik: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 14,391, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Lewis Poole: 13,053, level confidence: 60%.