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Perry Malik v Toby Ponting (Sun 03 Nov 2019)

Match won by Perry Malik. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Perry Malik: 14,388, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Toby Ponting: 10,121, level confidence: 42%.
Perry Malik to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Toby Ponting.

Perry Malik won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Perry Malik played 83% better than Toby Ponting in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Perry Malik actually played at a level of 16,339 and Toby Ponting at a level of 8,912. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 11% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Perry Malik changes to +6.9% and Toby Ponting changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Perry Malik becomes +2.3% and for Toby Ponting becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Dunlop British Junior Championships 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Perry Malik: 83%, Toby Ponting: 65%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Perry Malik: 73%, Toby Ponting: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Perry Malik: 14,690, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Toby Ponting: 9,766, level confidence: 57%.