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Robbie Temple v Tim Vail (Wed 06 Nov 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 3-11,11-8,9-11,12-10,7-11.

Starting level for Robbie Temple: 19,236, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,596, level confidence: 70%.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Robbie Temple.

Tim Vail won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 21% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 13% better than Robbie Temple in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Vail actually played at a level of 21,653 and Robbie Temple at a level of 19,186. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to 0% and Robbie Temple changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes +0% and for Robbie Temple becomes 0%.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Given Robbie Temple's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is 0% and for Robbie Temple is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 83%, Robbie Temple: 54%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 83%, Robbie Temple: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Robbie Temple: 19,214, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,589, level confidence: 83%.