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Tim Vail v Tom J Walsh (Tue 12 Nov 2019)

Match won by Tim Vail. Result: 11-7,9-11,3-11,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,633, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom J Walsh: 19,256, level confidence: 69%.
Tim Vail to win as he is currently playing 12% better than Tom J Walsh.

Tim Vail won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 5% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tim Vail played 9% better than Tom J Walsh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tim Vail actually played at a level of 21,276 and Tom J Walsh at a level of 19,579. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tim Vail changes to -1.3% and Tom J Walsh changes to +1.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tim Vail becomes -0.6% and for Tom J Walsh becomes +0.7%.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tom J Walsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hampshire Mens League 2019/2020' so the adjustment for Tim Vail is 0% and for Tom J Walsh is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tim Vail: 90%, Tom J Walsh: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tim Vail: 89%, Tom J Walsh: 81%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tim Vail: 21,536, level confidence: 89%.
Final level for Tom J Walsh: 19,299, level confidence: 81%.