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Yannik Omlor v Neil Cordell (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Yannik Omlor. Result: 11-8,11-0,11-4.

Starting level for Yannik Omlor: 19,146, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Neil Cordell: 18,293, level confidence: 61%.
Yannik Omlor to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Neil Cordell.

Yannik Omlor won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yannik Omlor played 175% better than Neil Cordell in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yannik Omlor actually played at a level of 31,035 and Neil Cordell at a level of 11,285. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 62% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yannik Omlor changes to +51% and Neil Cordell changes to -60%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yannik Omlor becomes +10.1% and for Neil Cordell becomes -12%.

Given Yannik Omlor's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 38% has been applied to his level change.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 36% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Yannik Omlor is +5.5% and for Neil Cordell is -6.2%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Neil Cordell is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yannik Omlor: 85%, Neil Cordell: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yannik Omlor: 52%, Neil Cordell: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Yannik Omlor: 20,191, level confidence: 52%.
Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,413, level confidence: 48%.