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Lewis Anderson v Jason Pike (Mon 11 Nov 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 11-6,11-8,13-11.

Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 17,396, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Jason Pike: 10,408, level confidence: 64%.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 67% better than Jason Pike.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 40% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 45% better than Jason Pike in this match.

In this case, Lewis Anderson played at level 15,603 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 16,138 (based on typical behaviour), Jason Pike played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to 0% and Jason Pike changes to +2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes 0% and for Jason Pike becomes +1.3%.

Given Jason Pike's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 18% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is 0% and for Jason Pike is +0.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 86%, Jason Pike: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 80%, Jason Pike: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lewis Anderson: 17,440, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jason Pike: 10,520, level confidence: 74%.