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Anthony Rogal v Lee Rossiter (Tue 12 Nov 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-13,11-4.

Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 15,540, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lee Rossiter: 10,775, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Lee Rossiter.

Anthony Rogal won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 44% better than Lee Rossiter in this match.

There is no adjustment needed for this match. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to 0% and Lee Rossiter changes to 0%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 31% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lee Rossiter's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 19% has been applied to his level change.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 91%, Lee Rossiter: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 91%, Lee Rossiter: 85%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Anthony Rogal: 15,579, level confidence: 91%.
Final level for Lee Rossiter: 10,802, level confidence: 85%.