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Gareth Lumsdon v Max Forster (Thu 14 Nov 2019)

Match won by Max Forster. Result: 4-11,9-11,9-11.

Starting level for Gareth Lumsdon: 12,582, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Max Forster: 21,091, level confidence: 54%.
Max Forster to win as he is currently playing 68% better than Gareth Lumsdon.

Max Forster won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Max Forster played 52% better than Gareth Lumsdon in this match.

In this case, Max Forster played at level 19,314 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Max Forster would normally have been playing at level 19,551 (based on typical behaviour), Gareth Lumsdon played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Max Forster changes to 0% and Gareth Lumsdon changes to +0.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Max Forster becomes 0% and for Gareth Lumsdon becomes +0.4%.

Given Gareth Lumsdon's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 24% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Northumbria Mens Winter 2019/20' so the adjustment for Max Forster is 0% and for Gareth Lumsdon is 0%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Max Forster: 74%, Gareth Lumsdon: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Max Forster: 70%, Gareth Lumsdon: 79%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gareth Lumsdon: 12,640, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Max Forster: 21,144, level confidence: 70%.