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Adrian Waller v Daryl Selby (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 6-11,11-5,11-6,12-14,5-11.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 47,866, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Daryl Selby: 37,827, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Daryl Selby.

Daryl Selby won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 9% better than Adrian Waller in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 44,346 and Adrian Waller at a level of 40,830. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +13% and Adrian Waller changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +3% and for Adrian Waller becomes -3.3%.

Given Daryl Selby's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 65% has been applied to his level change.

Given Adrian Waller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 77% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Daryl Selby is +1.4% and for Adrian Waller is -1.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 86%, Adrian Waller: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 73%, Adrian Waller: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 47,207, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Daryl Selby: 38,331, level confidence: 73%.