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Sam Hodgkins v Joe Lee (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Joe Lee. Result: 6-11,7-11,6-11.

Starting level for Sam Hodgkins: 11,473, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Joe Lee: 24,334, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Joe Lee to win as he is currently playing 112% better than Sam Hodgkins.

Joe Lee won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joe Lee played 74% better than Sam Hodgkins in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joe Lee was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 17,353 and 24,334 without affecting his level.

In this case, Joe Lee played at level 20,426 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Joe Lee would normally have been playing at level 20,939 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Hodgkins played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joe Lee changes to 0% and Sam Hodgkins changes to +1.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joe Lee becomes 0% and for Sam Hodgkins becomes +0.8%.

Given Sam Hodgkins's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joe Lee is 0% and for Sam Hodgkins is +0.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joe Lee: 85%, Sam Hodgkins: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joe Lee: 77%, Sam Hodgkins: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Hodgkins: 11,529, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Joe Lee: 24,328, level confidence: 77%.