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Harry Falconer v Declan Christie (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Harry Falconer. Result: 11-8,9-11,10-12,11-4,13-11.

Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,825, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Declan Christie: 9,616, level confidence: 57%.
Harry Falconer to win as he is currently playing 106% better than Declan Christie.

Harry Falconer won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Harry Falconer played 12% better than Declan Christie in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Harry Falconer was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 14,419 and 19,825 without affecting his level.

As Harry Falconer has played below his allowed range at 12,453, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Harry Falconer would normally have been playing at level 17,209 (based on typical behaviour), Declan Christie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 26%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.7% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Harry Falconer changes to -7.3% and Declan Christie changes to +18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Harry Falconer becomes -2.2% and for Declan Christie becomes +5%.

Given Harry Falconer's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Declan Christie's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 16% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Harry Falconer is -1.2% and for Declan Christie is +3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Harry Falconer: 91%, Declan Christie: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Harry Falconer: 67%, Declan Christie: 56%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,643, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Declan Christie: 9,951, level confidence: 56%.