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Tom J Walsh v Jan Van Den Herrewegen (Wed 06 Nov 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 4-11,3-11,2-11.

Starting level for Tom J Walsh: 20,170, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,093, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 59% better than Tom J Walsh.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 267% better than Tom J Walsh in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jan Van Den Herrewegen actually played at a level of 48,718 and Tom J Walsh at a level of 13,287. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 52% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 39% and 39% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to +27% and Tom J Walsh changes to -39%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes +5.5% and for Tom J Walsh becomes -8.2%.

Given Jan Van Den Herrewegen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 58% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tom J Walsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen is +2.6% and for Tom J Walsh is -4.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 92%, Tom J Walsh: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 61%, Tom J Walsh: 50%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom J Walsh: 19,340, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,906, level confidence: 61%.