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Mazen Hesham v Tom Richards (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 17-15,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 44,435, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,678, level confidence: 68%.
Mazen Hesham to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Tom Richards.

Mazen Hesham won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 35% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 48,247 and Tom Richards at a level of 35,622. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +6.3% and Tom Richards changes to -8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +1.7% and for Tom Richards becomes -2.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 93%, Tom Richards: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 85%, Tom Richards: 76%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 45,119, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 38,053, level confidence: 76%.