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Declan James v Vikram Malhotra (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Declan James. Result: 8-11,1-11,11-5,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Declan James: 40,528, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 29,258, level confidence: 68%.
Declan James to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Vikram Malhotra.

Declan James won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Declan James played 12% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.

As Declan James has played below his allowed range at 35,184, his level reduction is 7.7% before damping. On the assumption that Declan James would normally have been playing at level 39,187 (based on typical behaviour), Vikram Malhotra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 6.5% and 8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Declan James changes to -6.5% and Vikram Malhotra changes to +6.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Declan James becomes -1.8% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Declan James: 76%, Vikram Malhotra: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Declan James: 68%, Vikram Malhotra: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Declan James: 39,784, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 29,881, level confidence: 74%.