Fares Dessouky v Edmon Lopez Moller (Mon 11 Nov 2019)
Match won by Fares Dessouky. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-5.
Starting level for
Fares Dessouky:
55,536, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Edmon Lopez Moller:
34,304, level confidence: 53%.
Fares Dessouky to win as he is currently playing
62% better than Edmon Lopez Moller.
Fares Dessouky won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Fares Dessouky played
154% better than Edmon Lopez Moller in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Fares Dessouky actually played at a level of
69,542 and Edmon Lopez Moller at a level of
27,395. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky changes to +13% and Edmon Lopez Moller changes to -19%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Fares Dessouky becomes +2.8% and for Edmon Lopez Moller becomes -4.2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA World Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Fares Dessouky: 89%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Fares Dessouky: 71%, Edmon Lopez Moller: 58%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Fares Dessouky:
56,740, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Edmon Lopez Moller:
33,236, level confidence: 58%.