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Richie Fallows v Nathan Mead (Wed 13 Nov 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-9,11-2,11-3.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,255, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nathan Mead: 9,129, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 242% better than Nathan Mead.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 136% better than Nathan Mead in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Richie Fallows was taking it easy by anything up to 29%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 15,805 and 31,255 without affecting his level.

In this case, Richie Fallows played at level 21,869 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 22,226 (based on typical behaviour), Nathan Mead played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.6%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to 0% and Nathan Mead changes to +0.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes 0% and for Nathan Mead becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 89%, Nathan Mead: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 74%, Nathan Mead: 72%.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,255, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Nathan Mead: 9,170, level confidence: 72%.