Anthony Rogal v Tino Mackay Palacios (Wed 13 Nov 2019)
Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 11-7,11-2,11-2.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
15,582, level confidence: 91%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Tino Mackay Palacios:
5,489, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing
184% better than Tino Mackay Palacios.
Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played
200% better than Tino Mackay Palacios in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of
16,018 and Tino Mackay Palacios at a level of
5,339. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.7% and 1.7% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +1.5% and Tino Mackay Palacios changes to -1.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +0.7% and for Tino Mackay Palacios becomes -0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 95%, Tino Mackay Palacios: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 93%, Tino Mackay Palacios: 89%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
15,691, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for Tino Mackay Palacios:
5,438, level confidence: 89%.