Richie Fallows v Perry Malik (Thu 14 Nov 2019)
Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Richie Fallows:
31,255, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Perry Malik:
15,628, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing
100% better than Perry Malik.
Richie Fallows won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played
106% better than Perry Malik in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of
31,740 and Perry Malik at a level of
15,389. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.6% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.1% and 1.1% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +1.1% and Perry Malik changes to -1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +0.4% and for Perry Malik becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 86%, Perry Malik: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 85%, Perry Malik: 89%.
Final level for Richie Fallows:
31,392, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Perry Malik:
15,557, level confidence: 89%.