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Richie Fallows v Perry Malik (Thu 14 Nov 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,176, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Perry Malik: 15,638, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 99% better than Perry Malik.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 106% better than Perry Malik in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of 31,710 and Perry Malik at a level of 15,375. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +1.2% and Perry Malik changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +0.5% and for Perry Malik becomes -0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 86%, Perry Malik: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 85%, Perry Malik: 88%.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,327, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Perry Malik: 15,560, level confidence: 88%.