Richie Fallows v Perry Malik (Thu 14 Nov 2019)
Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-4.
Starting level for
Richie Fallows:
31,176, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Perry Malik:
15,638, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing
99% better than Perry Malik.
Richie Fallows won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played
106% better than Perry Malik in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of
31,710 and Perry Malik at a level of
15,375. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.7% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.2% and 1.2% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +1.2% and Perry Malik changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +0.5% and for Perry Malik becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 86%, Perry Malik: 90%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 85%, Perry Malik: 88%.
Final level for Richie Fallows:
31,327, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Perry Malik:
15,560, level confidence: 88%.