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Ben Coleman v Ahmed Hosny (Fri 15 Nov 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-5,11-2,11-5.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 31,454, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Ahmed Hosny: 21,258, level confidence: 59%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 48% better than Ahmed Hosny.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 175% better than Ahmed Hosny in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of 42,881 and Ahmed Hosny at a level of 15,593. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +22% and Ahmed Hosny changes to -29%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +4.6% and for Ahmed Hosny becomes -6.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Ahmed Hosny is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 89%, Ahmed Hosny: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 65%, Ahmed Hosny: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 32,632, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ahmed Hosny: 20,249, level confidence: 56%.