Shahjahan Khan v Ben Coleman (Sat 16 Nov 2019)
Match won by Shahjahan Khan. Result: 11-5,5-11,6-11,11-4,11-9.
Starting level for
Shahjahan Khan:
28,623, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Ben Coleman:
32,737, level confidence: 65%.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing
14% better than Shahjahan Khan.
Shahjahan Khan won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 10% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Shahjahan Khan played
10% better than Ben Coleman in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Shahjahan Khan actually played at a level of
32,105 and Ben Coleman at a level of
29,186. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan changes to +11% and Ben Coleman changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Shahjahan Khan becomes +2.8% and for Ben Coleman becomes -2.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Open International Niort Venise Verte' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Shahjahan Khan: 80%, Ben Coleman: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Shahjahan Khan: 71%, Ben Coleman: 72%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan:
29,407, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Ben Coleman:
31,911, level confidence: 72%.