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Richie Fallows v Sam Todd (Sat 16 Nov 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-7.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,327, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sam Todd: 24,676, level confidence: 66%.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Sam Todd.

Richie Fallows won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 56% better than Sam Todd in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of 34,775 and Sam Todd at a level of 22,229. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.7% and 9.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +7.7% and Sam Todd changes to -9.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +2.1% and for Sam Todd becomes -2.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 92%, Sam Todd: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 82%, Sam Todd: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,860, level confidence: 82%.
Final level for Sam Todd: 24,188, level confidence: 73%.