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Richie Fallows v Rui Soares (Sun 17 Nov 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-8,11-6,6-11,15-13.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,860, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rui Soares: 27,867, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Rui Soares.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 13% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 21% better than Rui Soares in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Richie Fallows actually played at a level of 32,789 and Rui Soares at a level of 27,078. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to +2.7% and Rui Soares changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes +1.1% and for Rui Soares becomes -1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior Wimbledon Cup' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 91%, Rui Soares: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 88%, Rui Soares: 90%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 32,074, level confidence: 88%.
Final level for Rui Soares: 27,720, level confidence: 90%.