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Jan Van Den Herrewegen v Mark Fuller (Mon 18 Nov 2019)

Match won by Jan Van Den Herrewegen. Result: 11-5,11-5,15-13.

Starting level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,832, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mark Fuller: 18,572, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Jan Van Den Herrewegen to win as he is currently playing 77% better than Mark Fuller.

Jan Van Den Herrewegen won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 61% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jan Van Den Herrewegen played 61% better than Mark Fuller in this match.

In this case, Jan Van Den Herrewegen played at level 29,932 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Mark Fuller is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen changes to 0% and Mark Fuller changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jan Van Den Herrewegen becomes 0% and for Mark Fuller becomes 0%.

Given Mark Fuller's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 37% has been applied to his level change.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 85%, Mark Fuller: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 81%, Mark Fuller: 88%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jan Van Den Herrewegen: 32,914, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Mark Fuller: 18,624, level confidence: 88%.