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Connor Sheen v Lewis Anderson (Tue 19 Nov 2019)

Match won by Connor Sheen. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Connor Sheen: 20,129, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 17,459, level confidence: 53%.
Connor Sheen to win as he is currently playing 15% better than Lewis Anderson.

Connor Sheen won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Connor Sheen played 94% better than Lewis Anderson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Connor Sheen actually played at a level of 26,119 and Lewis Anderson at a level of 13,455. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Connor Sheen changes to +21% and Lewis Anderson changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Connor Sheen becomes +4.9% and for Lewis Anderson becomes -6.3%.

Given Connor Sheen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Connor Sheen is +2.6% and for Lewis Anderson is -3.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Connor Sheen: 83%, Lewis Anderson: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Connor Sheen: 64%, Lewis Anderson: 56%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Connor Sheen: 20,643, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 16,869, level confidence: 56%.