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Aleks Stojanovic v Lewis Anderson (Mon 18 Nov 2019)

Match won by Lewis Anderson. Result: 8-11,5-11,9-11.

Starting level for Aleks Stojanovic: 4,196, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewis Anderson: 17,577, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Lewis Anderson to win as he is currently playing 319% better than Aleks Stojanovic.

Lewis Anderson won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lewis Anderson played 52% better than Aleks Stojanovic in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Lewis Anderson was taking it easy by anything up to 36%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,435 and 17,577 without affecting his level.

As Lewis Anderson has played below his allowed range at 6,399, his level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Lewis Anderson would normally have been playing at level 11,246 (based on typical behaviour), Aleks Stojanovic played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 33%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson changes to 0% and Aleks Stojanovic changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lewis Anderson becomes -0.1% and for Aleks Stojanovic becomes +5%.

Given Lewis Anderson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 35% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Lewis Anderson is 0% and for Aleks Stojanovic is +3.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lewis Anderson: 88%, Aleks Stojanovic: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lewis Anderson: 53%, Aleks Stojanovic: 55%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Aleks Stojanovic: 4,364, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Lewis Anderson: 17,609, level confidence: 53%.