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Charlie Rozentals v Anthony Rogal (Tue 19 Nov 2019)

Match won by Anthony Rogal. Result: 5-11,1-11,4-11.

Starting level for Charlie Rozentals: 5,635, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Anthony Rogal: 16,008, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Anthony Rogal to win as he is currently playing 184% better than Charlie Rozentals.

Anthony Rogal won all of the games and 77% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 230% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Anthony Rogal played 230% better than Charlie Rozentals in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Anthony Rogal actually played at a level of 17,253 and Charlie Rozentals at a level of 5,228. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 7.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.5% and 4.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal changes to +3.8% and Charlie Rozentals changes to -4.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Anthony Rogal becomes +1.5% and for Charlie Rozentals becomes -2.2%.

Given Anthony Rogal's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 32% has been applied to his level change.

Given Charlie Rozentals's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 2.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Anthony Rogal is +0.9% and for Charlie Rozentals is -1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Anthony Rogal: 94%, Charlie Rozentals: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Anthony Rogal: 87%, Charlie Rozentals: 80%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Charlie Rozentals: 5,562, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal: 16,188, level confidence: 87%.