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Richie Fallows v Tim Vail (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Richie Fallows. Result: 11-9,11-8,5-11,11-9.

Starting level for Richie Fallows: 31,381, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tim Vail: 21,527, level confidence: 90%. Set manually.
Richie Fallows to win as he is currently playing 46% better than Tim Vail.

Richie Fallows won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 3% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Richie Fallows played 18% better than Tim Vail in this match.

As Richie Fallows has played below his allowed range at 26,844, his level reduction is 6% before damping. On the assumption that Richie Fallows would normally have been playing at level 30,045 (based on typical behaviour), Tim Vail played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.9% and 7.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Richie Fallows changes to -4.9% and Tim Vail changes to +6.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Richie Fallows becomes -1.6% and for Tim Vail becomes +2%.

Given Richie Fallows's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 57% has been applied to his level change.

Given Tim Vail's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 42% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Richie Fallows is -0.8% and for Tim Vail is +1.1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Richie Fallows: 90%, Tim Vail: 95%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Richie Fallows: 81%, Tim Vail: 85%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,113, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Tim Vail: 21,736, level confidence: 85%.