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Ben Coleman v Jack Webster (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-8,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Ben Coleman: 31,570, level confidence: 70%.
Starting level for Jack Webster: 11,619, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing 172% better than Jack Webster.

Ben Coleman won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played 43% better than Jack Webster in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ben Coleman was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 18,464 and 31,570 without affecting his level.

As Ben Coleman has played below his allowed range at 17,532, his level reduction is 5.3% before damping. On the assumption that Ben Coleman would normally have been playing at level 24,874 (based on typical behaviour), Jack Webster played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.2% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to -3.2% and Jack Webster changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes -1.2% and for Jack Webster becomes +3.5%.

Given Ben Coleman's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 57% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Jack Webster's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 21% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Ben Coleman is -0.6% and for Jack Webster is +2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 84%, Jack Webster: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 61%, Jack Webster: 63%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ben Coleman: 31,359, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Jack Webster: 11,860, level confidence: 63%.