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Neil Cordell v Alex Phillips (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Neil Cordell. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Neil Cordell: 17,403, level confidence: 47%.
Starting level for Alex Phillips: 12,986, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Neil Cordell to win as he is currently playing 34% better than Alex Phillips.

Neil Cordell won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Neil Cordell played 120% better than Alex Phillips in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Neil Cordell actually played at a level of 22,298 and Alex Phillips at a level of 10,135. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 28% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Neil Cordell changes to +24% and Alex Phillips changes to -13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Neil Cordell becomes +5.6% and for Alex Phillips becomes -3.8%.

Given Neil Cordell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Given Alex Phillips's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 25% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Neil Cordell is +3.1% and for Alex Phillips is -2.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Neil Cordell: 68%, Alex Phillips: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Neil Cordell: 53%, Alex Phillips: 68%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Neil Cordell: 17,928, level confidence: 53%.
Final level for Alex Phillips: 12,689, level confidence: 68%.