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Tom Richards v Richie Fallows (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Tom Richards. Result: 11-8,11-6,11-7.

Starting level for Tom Richards: 38,284, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Richie Fallows: 32,187, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 19% better than Richie Fallows.

Tom Richards won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tom Richards played 56% better than Richie Fallows in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tom Richards actually played at a level of 43,905 and Richie Fallows at a level of 28,066. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tom Richards changes to +13% and Richie Fallows changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tom Richards becomes +3% and for Richie Fallows becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tom Richards: 85%, Richie Fallows: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tom Richards: 74%, Richie Fallows: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom Richards: 39,307, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Richie Fallows: 31,520, level confidence: 81%.