Stuart Macgregor v Anthony Rogal (Wed 20 Nov 2019)
Match won by Stuart Macgregor. Result: 12-10,11-3,11-2.
Starting level for
Stuart Macgregor:
21,298, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Anthony Rogal:
16,188, level confidence: 87%. Set manually.
Stuart Macgregor to win as he is currently playing
32% better than Anthony Rogal.
Stuart Macgregor won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 127% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Macgregor played
127% better than Anthony Rogal in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Macgregor actually played at a level of
27,955 and Anthony Rogal at a level of
12,333. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor changes to +27% and Anthony Rogal changes to -25%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Macgregor becomes +5.9% and for Anthony Rogal becomes -5.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Anthony Rogal is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Macgregor: 90%, Anthony Rogal: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Macgregor: 69%, Anthony Rogal: 71%.
Final level for Stuart Macgregor:
22,553, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Anthony Rogal:
15,417, level confidence: 71%.