Viktor Byrtus v Harry Falconer (Wed 20 Nov 2019)
Match won by Viktor Byrtus. Result: 11-7,11-9,9-11,12-10.
Starting level for
Viktor Byrtus:
22,129, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for
Harry Falconer:
19,640, level confidence: 65%.
Viktor Byrtus to win as he is currently playing
13% better than Harry Falconer.
Viktor Byrtus won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Viktor Byrtus played
22% better than Harry Falconer in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Viktor Byrtus actually played at a level of
23,036 and Harry Falconer at a level of
18,867. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Viktor Byrtus changes to +3.9% and Harry Falconer changes to -2.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Viktor Byrtus becomes +1.4% and for Harry Falconer becomes -1.1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Viktor Byrtus: 67%, Harry Falconer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Viktor Byrtus: 64%, Harry Falconer: 77%.
Final level for Viktor Byrtus:
22,449, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Harry Falconer:
19,419, level confidence: 77%.