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Viktor Byrtus v Harry Falconer (Wed 20 Nov 2019)

Match won by Viktor Byrtus. Result: 11-7,11-9,9-11,12-10.

Starting level for Viktor Byrtus: 22,129, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Harry Falconer: 19,640, level confidence: 65%.
Viktor Byrtus to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Harry Falconer.

Viktor Byrtus won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Viktor Byrtus played 22% better than Harry Falconer in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Viktor Byrtus actually played at a level of 23,036 and Harry Falconer at a level of 18,867. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Viktor Byrtus changes to +3.9% and Harry Falconer changes to -2.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Viktor Byrtus becomes +1.4% and for Harry Falconer becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Viktor Byrtus: 67%, Harry Falconer: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Viktor Byrtus: 64%, Harry Falconer: 77%.

Final level for Viktor Byrtus: 22,449, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Harry Falconer: 19,419, level confidence: 77%.