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Mazen Hesham v Diego Elias (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by Mazen Hesham. Result: 11-6,5-11,11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Mazen Hesham: 44,584, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Diego Elias: 54,839, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Diego Elias to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Mazen Hesham.

Mazen Hesham won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Hesham played 24% better than Diego Elias in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Hesham actually played at a level of 55,106 and Diego Elias at a level of 44,368. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham changes to +17% and Diego Elias changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Hesham becomes +3.6% and for Diego Elias becomes -4.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Channel Vas Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Hesham: 94%, Diego Elias: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Hesham: 76%, Diego Elias: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Hesham: 46,085, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Diego Elias: 52,792, level confidence: 68%.