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James Willstrop v Vinicius Rodrigues (Thu 21 Nov 2019)

Match won by James Willstrop. Result: 12-10,11-4,11-8.

Starting level for James Willstrop: 47,622, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Vinicius Rodrigues: 17,835, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
James Willstrop to win as he is currently playing 167% better than Vinicius Rodrigues.

James Willstrop won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that James Willstrop played 55% better than Vinicius Rodrigues in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that James Willstrop was taking it easy by anything up to 21%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,974 and 47,622 without affecting his level.

As James Willstrop has played below his allowed range at 28,757, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that James Willstrop would normally have been playing at level 37,782 (based on typical behaviour), Vinicius Rodrigues played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.6% and 10.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for James Willstrop changes to -2.6% and Vinicius Rodrigues changes to +8.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for James Willstrop becomes -1% and for Vinicius Rodrigues becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA London Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. James Willstrop: 77%, Vinicius Rodrigues: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. James Willstrop: 59%, Vinicius Rodrigues: 64%.

Final level for James Willstrop: 47,173, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Vinicius Rodrigues: 18,279, level confidence: 64%.